Honshu, should they have seen it coming?

I’m from Southern California, and lived most of my life in the San Fernando Valley.
I’ve been through a few quakes.
Being an engineer, I have a passing interest in these seismic events. Today I went to the USGS site and extracted the earthquake event data from 3/6-3/13. Of course most of the data was dominated by Honshu after shocks. In all there were 561 events over this period, I greped the data for Honshu, resulting in 385 of the data points.
What was I looking for? Simple,  I was looking for pre-quake events.

What I found:
There were 36 seismic events > 4.6 that preceded the 3/11 5:46AM 8.9 mega-quake. This swarm started with a 7.2 event on 3/9 2:45AM.

Honshu201103

Honshu Seismic Events 3/9-3/13

Did they think that the 7.2 pre-quake was a rogue event? Followed by after shocks?
Or, was it a signal of more to come?
Sadly, I guess we know the answer now.

Landfill Hill, the wind, Tibetan Prayer Flags??? No…

Friday was a blustery, cloudy day.  Not the best of days to be running the trail blower and cleaning the Silver Comet Trail.   It’s difficult to work against the wind.  Like riding a bike in windy weather, you learn to take what the road will give you.  It’s all good if your head is right.  Just part of the challenge.  Like learning to love the rope.

Early in the day I planned a turn around on Landfill Hill.  Why? It’s one of two, steep, winding sections on the Comet, with a couple of sharp downhill turns.  It’s a bad spot for less-experienced riders where they have, in the past, let the speed get away from them. Debris on this section of trail can be a serious hazard.

Land fill Hill isn’t a pleasant place with winds out of the South like they were Friday, not the usual north-westerly winds.   The sun had peeked out in the last hour and warming the ground, and with recent rains, the humid stench of landfill was over whelming.  Fighting the wind I increased speed and edged to the left to avoid lifting and blowing debris adjacent to the trail.  Rounding the second, outside corner I spotted the turn around.   The second hump and top of Landfill Hill.  Still working against the wind I edged over 2 ft from the left and increased speed, leaving me just enough room to use the wind on the return pass.

I cruised to a stop at the top, jerking the ATV to the left for the turnaround.   It was then that flashes of color caught my eye.  What the he**??  My first impression was colorful tattered Tibetan prayer flags, fluttering in the wind,  like I had seen in movies.  Puzzled, I stopped the ATV and walked up the ridge.

Landfill Hill flags.

A multi-colored array of plastic shopping bags,  lofted from the landfill and into the air had snagged on the brush in a make-shift pattern, as if strung together when viewed at distance.  Yes, it was just trash, snagged by the brush and trapped by the wind, but I can’t shake that lingering first impression of prayer flags fluttering in the wind.  I still find the incident a bit haunting.  The other side of the trail, I looked, there were no flags.

Tibetan prayer flags.

Tibetan prayer flags.

sunrise, sunset times: not what you might think.

Many people are aware of the winter solstice which is the shortest day of the year, which last occurred on December 22nd. However this date is not the latest sunrise nor earliest sunset for the year. Keeping this discussion practical, rather than technical, let’s ask the question, “So what does this mean to me as a cyclist?”

A good web based tool to look at for data like this.

Wikipedia has an excellent semi-technical description.

AxialTiltObliquity

AxialTiltObliquity

Using the data from the time-and-date site I found that the earliest sunsets actually occur in early December and the latest sunrises occur in early January. So, here we are in mid-January, how does this effect our cycling or other outdoor activities?

Data for Atlanta, Ga:
Jan 16, 2011
Sunrise: 7:42 AM Sunset: 5:53 PM
Daylight hours: 10h 10m 37s
Daylight hour change: + 1m 10s

Since the Winter Solstice occurred, our daylight hours have increased 16 minutes, but sunset times are actually 24 minutes later from early December. On the other hand, sunrise times are only 3 minutes earlier since the solstice.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the rate of change for these processes is highest near the equinoxes (equal day/night hours). During mid-March the days are getting longer at a rate of 126sec/day. During early October the days are getting shorter at a rate of 124sec/day.

So if it seemed to you, that the celestial events like sunrise and sunset weren’t in sync with the solstices, it wasn’t your imagination.

LA loses to the Kardashians

This is about LA, Lance Armstrong and it’s definitely not about the bike.

One of the people that I follow on the web is Dan Zarrella.  Dan compiles data about social web sites like Facebook and Twitter.  What I like about Mr. Zarrella’s work is that he generates data from linguistic/cultural structures and social networks, something he refers to as Memetics  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memetics.

Dan recently published a list of rankings for Twitter Celebrity Clickthrough  Rates of various well know Twitterati; one of those ranked was Lance Armstrong, a well-know cyclist, cancer survivor and a leader in the battle against cancer.  Dan often talks about “influencers”, the personalities that other people follow and listen to.   Unfortunately (in my view) most of the people that were ranked were people without a message; just reality-actors, musicians, etc. Only a few of the ranked celebrities fell outside this circle.

Twitter Celebrity Clickthoughs

Twitter Celebrity Clickthoughs

Visit Dan’s website: http://danzarrella.com/celeb-ctrs.html#

It was good to see that Lance ranked fairly high on his ability to influence Twitter followers.   What surprised me most was the overall low response all these people had, <2%.    I would have expected better results for the likes of Mashable which has more informative content links rather than the reflective tweets of most twitters.

Why is it so cold?

Why is it so cold?

Check out this 300mb jetstream graphic from the atlbike.org Weather page, Monday 12/6.

http://atlbike.org/index.php?name=Atlanta-Georgia-Weather

(click to enlarge)

jetstream

jetstream

The jetstream is pumping cold arctic air into the Southeast.  Brrrrr!

Cleaning the Silver Comet Trail Report: Friday 20101203

A cold morning with frost on the ATV windshield and saddle.  I needed to wait for sunrise before heading to Rockmart, fortunately everything had thawed by the time I got there.   You certainly can’t run the blower with a frosty windshield and no defroster in the ATV.

Stats for the day: 50.48 miles, average speed 9 mph.  Normally the average speed is higher but the huge quantity of debris in Polk County was a major problem.  The section of the trail cleaned ran from downtown Rockmart to the Alabama state line.

Polk County has been trimming shrubbery along the trail and leaving a huge quantity of hazardous debris on the trail.  Thank goodness we have the blower running, there was so much mess I couldn’t get everything like I usually do, but I got probably got 98% of the debris off the trail. At least when you blow the trail, what gets missed is visible and easy for others to avoid or remove. The GRITS guys do a great job of following up and fixing things, in fact I saw Junior out riding Friday and we discussed the follow-up.   I’m very proud of the work that the blower does.  Here are a couple of before and after photos.

(click images to enlarge)

This is how one of the worst debris strewn areas of the Polk County section of the trail looked.  Hundreds of debris chunks that are a serious hazard to bike and rider.

Debris on the Silver Comet Trail

Debris on the Silver Comet Trail

Of course the trail blower did a great job of cleaning up the mess.   This is how it looked on the return trip.  Quite a difference.

After the cleanup.

After the cleanup, note all the debris adjacent to the trail.

After the cleanup, note all the debris adjacent to the trail.

Finishing in Rockmart I get to treat myself to dinner at Frankie’s.  A good way to finish a hard day of  work making the trail safer and more enjoyable to ride.

Moonrise on the Silver Comet Trail

Cleaning the trail, heading back to Cedartown late Saturday evening, I enjoyed watching this beautiful full moon rising.

(click image to enlarge)

Moonrise on the Silver Comet Trail

Moonrise on the Silver Comet Trail

a cleaner place

I don’t know that I’ve left the trail a better place, but certainly cleaner.

I ran the trail blower from dawn to dusk today.  Unfortunately my Garmin 305 locked-up today so I don’t know how many miles of trail I cleaned, but I’d guesstimate at least 35 miles.

( click images to enlarge )

Silver Comet Trail

Silver Comet Trail

The trail blower really does an amazing job at cleaning the trial.

Here it is with it’s new winterizing accessories.

Trail blower with witerizing accessories.

Trail blower with winterizing accessories.

Trail blower with windshield and lights; rigged for winter running.

I don’t know what they call this location west of Landfill Hill, but it is a scenic stop with a panoramic view and some Fall color.

Panoramic view and Fall colors.

Panoramic view and Fall colors.

Winterizing the Trail Blower

Jim Brannan has added lights and a windshield to the trail blower.  I’ve run at night before when we did the GRITS Ladiga ride, but the blower blocks most of the light coming from the standard headlights.   I asked Jim if he could add some headlights.  So he fished through his collection of motorcycle goodies and came up with two halogen headlights, a side light to illuminate the left side and a windshield to reduce the effects of those early morning pre-dawn temps.

Thanks Jim, after the freezing rain two weeks ago, the wind screen will be a big help.

Photo taken this evening at the Hiram trail head on the Silver Comet Trail.  (click image to enlarge)

Winter accessories for the trail blower.

Winter accessories for the trail blower.

Cleaning the Silver Comet Trail Oct10,2010

Finished cleaning the trail between Rockmart and Cedartown today. Two very tough days of work. Completed all the trail sections between Rockmart and the Alabama border.   Jim and I have now cleaned the entire trail from the Cobb County line to the Alabama border.  It’s like a new trail in places.  I’ve included three videos from today’s work, which show the power and speed of our ATV-blower.

My favorite for the day was video #3

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Video #1

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Video #2

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